Viruses Change Human Relationships: Helen Zhang Interview
原创 Herstory 中美实践 3月5日
Cold thinking on the moment of inflection point of epidemic situation
Editing|Hedong Zhang / Guozheng Ren
In 2020, the Chinese people once again came to the unforgettable Boxer year of the General Association. We spent a forbidden Spring Festival. The sudden outbreak of the new coronavirus isolated 1.4 billion people and isolated 1.4 billion people from the world's 7 billion people. We have never thought so calmly and deeply.
How much influence and change will novel coronavirus bring to mankind with a diameter of 0.1um? At the inflection point of novel coronavirus's epidemic situation, Zhang Yuening, founder of "Helen Interview Herstory", remotely contacted Dr. Chen Kaifeng, an economist who is contacting the Chinese-American community in New York to donate anti-epidemic materials for Hubei, China. President Yan Xiaozhe, founder of American borderless Education, who is leading Chinese students to attend the Harvard University India Forum in Boston, and President Chen Sheng, Dean of China Real Estate data Research Institute, who is still in first-level control of Shanghai,From the voices of three guests who think coldly about the present from three different latitudes: finance, education and real estate.
Has the United States entered a bear market? Will Trump win the presidential election?
Is the outbreak of the epidemic affecting Chinese children studying abroad?
After the new coronavirus epidemic, will China's real estate usher in the era of online marketing?
Part 1 An exclusive interview with Chen Kaifeng, Chief Economist of Horizon Financial in the United States
Q: Hello, Kaifeng! What is the global economic situation at the beginning of 2020? What is the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak in China on neighboring economies, Hong Kong, Japan and the world?
Chen Kaifeng: The situation at this stage is definitely not good. The level of global consumption has fallen sharply in the first quarter. Apple's sales have dropped by 50%. Xiaomi and Huawei have also dropped sharply. Affected by the epidemic, China's production capacity has declined, and South Korea's auto industry has been hit hard by the lack of Chinese spare parts. The outbreak has had a huge impact on the aviation industry across Asia, with expected revenue for the industry as a whole reduced by US $30 billion. I think the epidemic must have a great impact on the neighboring economies, and it is probably Hong Kong that has the greatest impact. Hong Kong is still very dependent on China in all aspects. At present, domestic exports and imports are definitely decreasing. This will have a great impact on Hong Kong, including tourism and other aspects.Other countries in Asia must be affected and affected, such as Japan, and the higher the density of the economy with China, the greater the impact.
Q: China and the United States have just signed the first phase of the trade agreement. Will the implementation of the Sino-US trade agreement after this epidemic be affected? Do you think Trump is likely to be re-elected in the current presidential election in the United States?
Chen Kaifeng: Personally, I think it is quite possible for Trump to be re-elected. The unemployment rate in the United States is at an all-time low, the growth of national income in all aspects is good, and the economic growth is stable and normal. In general, the president of the United States will be re-elected. I don't think the overall trend of Sino-US trade cooperation will change. After the epidemic, China's current isolation and city closure measures have affected China's agricultural production, product processing, and industrial manufacturing to a certain extent, and industrial production capacity has declined in a short period of time. The demand for imports of many agricultural products, industrial products, and energy that people depend on will greatly increase, and the United States is a major foreign country to China, so China's imports to the United States will increase significantly in this regard.
Q: What impact do you expect this new coronavirus outbreak will have on China's financial markets? How to hedge the risk of investing in Chinese stock market and real economy?
Chen Kaifeng: The impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the domestic economy is mainly due to the big cash flow problems of many domestic enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. if these enterprises encounter high leverage when they already have big cash flow problems, they are likely to trigger default, which is why I am worried that there may be a large number of defaults in China, and the default rate will rise sharply. It is difficult to hedge the risk of investing in the Chinese stock market and the real economy, which is difficult to hedge, and it is difficult to hedge when the economy as a whole is in a downturn, unless it is to spread the risk globally, say, in other countries.
Q: China is carrying out financial system reform and issued a series of policies to liberalize foreign investment in China's financial industry and investment at the beginning of 2019. Will this epidemic deal a blow to foreign investment confidence in China?
Chen Kaifeng: With regard to the financial industry,from a long-term point of view,foreign investment as a whole will continue to increase investment in China,but at the same time,these enterprises will also consider that furture risk diversification in the future may expand investment to Southest Asia and other countries,which will lead to the dispersion of the previous industrial chain concentrated in China in the future.
Q: How long will the bull run in the US stock market last? has it been affected by the new coronavirus epidemic? Is the decline in recent days the risk of the spread of Price in?
Chen Kaifeng: This problem is more difficult to say now, but I think it is unlikely that there will be a bear market in the United States, mainly because American enterprises are still mainly profitable, and the profits of earning from China are very few, so it does not have much direct impact. I think the collapse of US stocks in the past few days has basically taken into account the risk of the spread of the epidemic.
Q: Today I am concerned about Trump's high-profile visit to India during the epidemic. What do you think of the relationship between the United States and India?
Chen Kaifeng: The relations between the United States and India in all aspects are indeed very good. Indians are also quite successful in all aspects of the development of the United States, and the United States and India complement each other in all aspects of the economy.
Part 2 An exclusive interview with Yan Xiaozhe, President of Education without Borders in the United States
Q: Hello, Chairman Yan! What impact will this year's epidemic have on Chinese students studying in the United States in the future?
Yan Xiaozhe: Recently, the United States has suspended the processing of visas to the United States. After the end of the epidemic, it is more difficult to judge whether the policy will be restored and relaxed or whether it will be tightened than before. As a result of this outbreak, schools have been closed in all provinces and cities, which will arouse parents' and students' enthusiasm for studying abroad. I think students will have a stronger desire to study in the United States after the epidemic.
Q: Will this epidemic change the admission requirements of American schools for Chinese students? Like increasing physical check-ups?
Yan Xiaozhe: Students studying in the United States usually get all kinds of vaccinations and submit health reports before enrollment. Generally, you don't need them when you enter the country, but you will need them when you enter the university, because insurance companies will have requirements in this regard. The policy on foreign students in the United States has remained unchanged in the past few years. I believe that after this epidemic, there will not be any new or great changes, and the education policy in the United States has always been relatively stable.
Q: Due to the impact of the epidemic, schools in the country are now closed, which has triggered an upsurge in online education in the country. what do you think of this?
Yan Xiaozhe: Online education is relatively mature in the United States. Most schools in the United States have online courses, but the proportion of completing studies and degrees at Harvard, Yale and other schools is still very small. There is a situation: some schools can not offer this course or there are too few students to take this course, so the cost of online teaching will not be too high. Online education in the United States is more mature, online and offline tuition prices are basically the same. After the epidemic, online education will have a great development in China, but there is a huge problem in online education, that is, the effect of students'on-the-spot lectures, the communication between students will be relatively poor, and the requirements for students' self-discipline ability are relatively high. China's online education should still have a long way to go, and there may be ups and downs. What I am worried about is whether this trend will lead to abnormal development.
Q: This year is the US election year. During the epidemic in China, the US election has gradually entered a critical stage. You led Chinese students to participate in some US presidential campaign activities. Do you have any personal feelings?
Yan Xiaozhe: American youth have four mainstream interests: the first political campaign, the second religious activities, the third is sports, and the fourth is music, art, and movies. Chinese students are generally not active in the political campaign activities in the United States, and the students are more skillful and short-sighted. Some students asked me, "President Yan, I will go with you to participate in the presidential campaign. Can I get anything?" Many times we Chinese students lack the spirit of adventure. Yang Anze is an excellent representative of our Chinese in the new presidential election in the United States, but he also has the most fundamental problem with the Chinese, that is, their ability to compete for opportunities is relatively weak, and other candidates spend all their time in campaign speeches and debates. but he often gave up and stopped in half the time. In the presidential campaign, I will tell the students that they should be especially Taff, and should be very strong and can't have a glass heart. To have the ability to seize opportunities, to have the spirit to forge ahead, to make unremitting efforts to improve their own quality, perseverance, courage and wisdom.
Q: What do you think are the fundamental differences in educational concepts between China and the United States?
Yan Xiaozhe: The differences in education between China and the United States have given rise to differences in productivity. In the United States, students are given more opportunities to freely choose and make their own decisions. for example, if a professor talks about a question in an American university, he will write a book list for the students, and the students will check it out by themselves, so that the students will have a strong ability to study by themselves. there are also more opportunities for students to discuss problems with each other. Chinese teachers will teach you the content, and the teaching content is relatively fixed. In American universities, each professor speaks differently, and the teaching materials and teaching contents of the professors are also different. in this way, different ideas are created, and the content mastered by the students is also different. therefore, diversified education trains diversified talents. In China, the teaching content is compiled uniformly throughout the country, and schools and teachers usually have a so-called standard. In fact, I never think that a standard is a good thing, because once the standard is met, it is to train all students to be the same. If all the students are trained to be the same, how can they cope with the strange development of society?
Q: Due to the influence of novel coronavirus's epidemic, many children in China still have to stay at home and cannot go back to school. How can classes be suspended without suspension? Can you give us some advice?
Yan Xiaozhe: First of all, we must make full use of our time at home. You can't really become an "otaku" or "otaku" just because you stay at home. You can watch good movies and read books at home. I suggest that students take this opportunity to watch more original Oscar movies, read more world classics, and learn the essence of world culture while improving their reading ability and English proficiency. Staying at home will produce a lot of negative factors, how to turn positive? Is to plan a reasonable time, plan the learning content. Of course, these are not formal education, but a supplementary education. In addition, I think you can use this time to learn some courses online. These online courses do not have to be normal courses in the school, for example, you can learn a little cooking courses, and if you study abroad, you may need to cook for yourself. second, it is suggested that everyone should learn the course of programming and master some new software technology. programming is also a college student in the United States, high school students need to cultivate the ability; statistical software technology is also very valuable to many liberal arts students. Fourth, it is suggested to learn some basic health knowledge, how to improve their physical quality and develop good hygiene habits, all of which are necessary to study systematically, so I think that too many children in China stay at home now. We can't let time go to waste day by day. Can we make a plan, such as watching programs today, looking at statistics tomorrow, and how to arrange to learn a little new knowledge on average every day? Improve your time utilization.
Part 3 Interview:President of China real estate data research institue Mr Sheng Chen
Q: How do you do, Dean Chen? With the outbreak of the new coronavirus in 2020, China's real estate is in a new historical background. Sino-US economy and trade and the new coronavirus epidemic have a far-reaching impact on China's real estate. At the beginning of this year, hundreds of housing enterprises have been declared bankrupt, what measures have been introduced at the policy level in view of the worsening current situation of the industry?
Chen Sheng: We have made a calculation according to the current situation and future policy system of the real estate industry. Now the cash flow stress test of a medium-sized developer, probably his existing monetary funds will be used for wages, loan payments, and then interest will probably be able to support for three months. For example, the monetary capital is 35 billion, but the monthly expenditure is about 11.6 billion, because the loan has been halved, and then the sales rebate is completely gone. Well, after three months of stress tests, this is a very direct issue of financial stability. In order to solve this problem, local governments have taken some corresponding measures, mainly to reduce taxes, including the mode of sales, including the time to obtain pre-sale license and sales permission. However, the whole level of the central government still adheres to the general concept of housing speculation. Because the epidemic is different from that during sars, the market size in 2003 was only 800 billion, while we are now 16 trillion. At that time, it was a pillar industry, but now we don't speculate on housing, so on the financial side, I think there will be some drip irrigation for blood transfusion, which cannot be comprehensive. I don't think there will be excessive measures to rescue the real estate market. It will only be in some minor policy aspects, including the pace of land payment or down payment, the approval of obtaining a pre-sale permit, and so on. For some developers with funds, now is an excellent time to take land in the counter-cycle, so we can see that the recent sale of land in Beijing and Shanghai is good. There will be a certain relaxation of financial policy, and there will be a lot of money, but the premise is that we have to go through this stage, that is to say, you cannot die at this stage. In the end, the enterprises that survived the epidemic are all good enterprises, and there is more money. From a certain point of view, the enterprises that can survive this stage are all high-quality enterprises with strong self-immunity, financial power, and strong control.
Q: SARS in 2003 led to the e-commerce model led by Taobao, and the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020 seems to have led to the online marketing model of real estate in China. Affected by the epidemic, including VR and other technologies have recently become a hot spot in the real estate industry, what do you think of the rise of the online marketing boom of real estate enterprises in the epidemic?
Chen Sheng: The current VR combination and online sales arrangements are a last resort for developers. It should be said that the response was very hasty, and it can even be said that it did not think clearly about the overall context and logic, and did not make clear the core points and keys of online sales, what are the new problems to be broken through, the psychological problems that customers are most concerned about, and other details. I don't think it's been solved yet. If it is just the collection of information and the promotion of discounts, this can only be a short-term behavior, but I think there is an opportunity to use hard technology, or big data technology, or cool techs to promote or change the real estate sales model, but some core issues need to be solved.
Q: During the epidemic, people are unable to buy houses offline without leaving their homes. How do large real estate brands and small and medium-sized real estate enterprises build an online marketing model?
Chen Sheng: Now large enterprises are nothing more than to set up a platform on the Internet, put the project information on it through their official account APP, and then issue some preferential measures. Then let everyone not have to worry about some of the responsibilities of the purchase, can be refunded for no reason, these are just to attract people's attention, lock customers in advance, maintain potential customers, and wait for the epidemic to improve before completing offline behavior, this is still offline thinking, online just as a means. Many small businesses do not even have such technology or arrangements, but blindly entrust intermediaries or network platforms to go online, which is just a summary of information. I think it does not solve the relevant pain points.
Q: What are the market occupancy and characteristics of third-party service providers sold online, such as Fang Tian Xia, Leju, etc., during the epidemic? What gains have been made in this wave of selling houses on the line?
Chen Sheng: The existing network platform is divided into three generations. The first generation belongs to the information type, and SouFun began to make a profit in 2003, that is, during the period of using sars, no one can get out, and the source of information depends on the Internet. Now it has evolved to what we call the effect, or the channel era, an era represented by Lianjia shells. The third era, I think is an era of decision-making platform, the key is how to form a platform purchase, and even quantify the decision-making process, which puts forward higher requirements. I think it is not necessarily large enterprises that can solve this problem quickly, some special enterprises will emerge.
Q: How do you think the online marketing ecology should be used to renovate the traditional real estate brand in the future after the epidemic?
Chen Sheng: To solve the online sales problem, I put forward six aspects: the first decision digitization, the second choice precision, the financial measurement, the investment rationalization, the order issuing expert, and the after-sale peace of mind. Only with the guarantee of six modernizations can we realize the purchase behavior directly if we do not look at the house, do not contact offline, and have less contact with offline. How to achieve this behavior? I think we need a tool, just like we buy stocks at home, we can buy stocks without looking at the company. How do we do that? You need some operating tools such as Wande or Great Wisdom in the industry. Because buying a house is a low-frequency event, and real estate decision-making is a multi-frequency event, we have to help the buyer to put all his decision-making process online, through a variety of data presentation, to answer questions.Coupled with VR technology and blockchain order technology, it enables transactions like selling stocks. We can decompose all the house purchase decisions and 126 indicators into city, enterprise, product and location analysis indicators to help him complete. Finally, endorse it through the guidance of the purchasing agent of the expert. Because the choice or judgment of Li Jiaqi-style real estate experts may be more comprehensive and thoughtful than his own thinking, customers can buy a house without seeing or less at the scene.
Q: Hong Kong Land became the New Land King of Shanghai during the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020. What are your unique views on this? what do you think of the prospect of foreign investment in China?
Chen Sheng: Why Hong Kong Land can win such a land king for 31.05 billion!Apart from Hong Kong, it is the second most expensive piece of land in history.Because this is the scarcest resource, it can reshape hs business environment in Hong Kong, or a land plot project. In addition, it has also been reflected through this epidemic that cities with strong health management and control capabilities such as Shanghai and Beijing will be more scarce in the future. Many third-and fourth-tier cities have been beaten back to their original shape under this epidemic, and the urban governance capacity is very imperfect. The city is not the glossy buildings on the surface, but the improvement of governance ability and soft ability. Shanghai is the first to bear the brunt in this respect, and the first city in the metropolitan area is very scarce in the future. Therefore, in the future, cities such as Shanghai and Beijing with soft management capabilities, including health management and emergency management, will further hope to obtain these resources. In addition, citizens of Shanghai will also wonder whether they can independently own relatively large low-density housing and serve very strong properties in such a city, including the creation of intelligent, contactless communities, and those that can diagnose and isolate the epidemic. Some high-density vegetation cover will be a key need.
As of the deadline, the virus epidemic has undergone new developments and changes in South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, the United States and other countries. Recalling that SARS in 2003 and 9 / 11 in 2001 did not affect and change human history as much as this virus epidemic, this is a major event in human history and a common problem for mankind.