Epidemic Situation And Human Relations
An Exclusive Interview With Chinese and American Figures By Helen Zhang (2)
Writing |Helen Zhang
Editor| Hedong Zhang Guozheng Ren
The End And Beginning Of The Epidemic
From the first day of 2020, every moment will be unforgettable. This interview has experienced four countries and six cities, and the world is changing rapidly in a little time.
In 2020, the new coronavirus epidemic broke out. China's 1.4 billion people are isolated from the world's 7 billion people. At present, China's virus epidemic is under control, and more and more people outside China are entering the state of isolation and anti epidemic. What is the impact of the epidemic on China's people's consumption, commercial real estate, shopping centers, production, import and export, and what changes will take place? How will human international relations develop and evolve? What is the personal experience of the president of big data real estate company in the United States? Recently, Zhang Yuening, the founder of Herstory Helen Zhang Interview, discussed with Su Xiaoqing, the retail king of Chinese department stores in Phnom Penh, Tokyo, Los Angeles and New York, Liu Qi, a Chinese economist and international relations researcher, and Jim Costello, President of real capital analytics in the United States.
Where will China's retail department stores and commercial real estate go after the virus epidemic downturn?
Will the new coronavirus with a diameter of 0.1 μ m become the furthest distance in international relations?
When the new coronavirus epidemic broke out in the United States, how did the senior president of big data company of real estate share his personal experience?
Exclusive Interview: Su XiaoQing, China's Retail King
Herstory: How do you do, Mr Su! Novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, China's 1 billion 400 million people do not leave their homes at home, all department stores, shopping centers almost stop business, in addition to the epidemic reasons, our shopping center, commercial real estate in essence, there is excess development, development of imbalance and health problems?
Su Xiaoqing: Jubilant and novel coronavirus pneumonia brings the cold spring water to the 2020 Spring Festival that should be cheerful, happy and auspicious. We saw the streets and lanes of major cities in the country suddenly become cold and clear, and almost all the department stores and shopping centers are sparrows. The objective reason for this sudden drop in the flow of people in department stores and shopping centers is the epidemic situation, which has little to do with the excessive development. However, in terms of the development volume of commercial real estate and shopping center, at least at present, it is a serious surplus. We can see that the average annual sales volume of shopping center in non-traditional Business District of first and second tier cities is 10000 yuan / m2, which can not meet the basic requirements of the return on investment of commercial real estate development.
Herstory: Did the outbreak reveal what aspects of our consumption habits are worth improving? Our shopping center design, investment, operation Is there anything worth improving?
Su Xiaoqing: This outbreak really needs to be alerted and reflect on the diet habits of the people, such as eating wild animals and sharing meals. In the future, we need to attach great importance to the design and operation of shopping centers: commercial real estate and shopping centers should avoid the "big box" architectural form as much as possible. If it has become an objective reality, the "big box" architecture should increase the fresh air system exhaust volume. At the same time, shopping malls and shopping malls should pay attention to and strengthen public health management and indoor air testing. It is more important to strengthen the health supervision of catering stores, especially the video monitoring of cooked food.
Herstory: There is a turning point in the epidemic, and the domestic epidemic has been basically controlled. Do you think people will have a retaliatory consumption rebound after the epidemic is over or will people continue to have a low consumption due to the impact of the epidemic?
Su Xiaoqing: We all know that the premise of the operation of shopping centers and real retail industry is the flow of people, and the epidemic situation is the key factor affecting the flow of people. With the alleviation of the epidemic, the flow of people will gradually increase, and the order of sales increase will be people's livelihood goods, necessities, traditional services, hotel catering, selective goods, and fashion brand goods. We can see from the assessment data of the epidemic by professional institutions that the impact of the epidemic on the retail industry will continue to the middle and late April. We look forward to the "May Day" holiday leading the domestic retail industry into a normal period.
Herstory: In recent years, online shopping has a great impact on shopping centers. The outbreak of the epidemic has even stimulated the birth of more new products online shopping, even real estate. What do you think of this trend? How much do you think this online shopping trend is driven by the virus epidemic and how do we adapt to it?
Su Xiaoqing: The epidemic is driving the rise of the "do not meet" sales model, which is very normal. In the short term, the epidemic has brought a disastrous impact on the retail industry (including traditional service industry), especially the catering industry, entertainment industry, and retail chain enterprises operating highly selective goods. This kind of influence will also be reflected in the production and processing enterprises step by step. Many manufacturers of wearing goods have sold spring and summer goods through the network, discount and other measures. Department stores and shopping centers, at least until now, actively support brand counters, cooperate with manufacturers to help themselves, and voluntarily act as the "front warehouse" in commodity circulation. However, how to distribute the interests of Party A and Party B in the future for the joint Department stores and the shopping centers with part of them as a whole remains to be observed.
Herstory: Our shopping center is a product of learning from Europe and the United States. Does this epidemic prove the disadvantages of the shopping center model in Europe and the United States? On the other hand, what are the advantages of European and American consumption and shopping places worth learning?
Su Xiaoqing: Shopping Center originated in America in 1925, community and suburbanization were the two main directions of the early development of American shopping center; then, the shopping center spread to Europe, coincided with the urban renewal of European countries, the shopping center began to show its shopping mall properties when it combined with the update of the original department store of the trade center; then, the shopping center spread to Japan and Southeast Asia The community, shopping malls and suburbanization of shopping centers have been gradually determined. When shopping centers were introduced to Australia, the government combined the development of shopping centers with the construction of outlets in the urban planning, so the shopping centers in Australia are more "outlets", and become an indispensable part of urban development and outlets construction. In recent years, with the rise of Internet e-commerce, global shopping centers have gradually reduced the proportion of shopping functions.
The introduction of shopping center into China coincides with the simultaneous development of new city and old city renewal. Since then, the development and construction of shopping center has been in full swing. At the same time, it is not clear what the shopping center is, and it is also included in the national 2004 version of "retail format classification specification". In the early stage of the reform, the traditional department stores had to give up the original commodity management due to the lack of liquidity needed for commodity management, which resulted in the Chinese style "no separation of manufacturers" different from Spa (vertical marketing). While the business capacity and industry concentration of the retail industry are declining year by year, the development environment of the retail industry continues to be poor, and only Wal Mart remains in the 12 foreign physical retailers. Over the years, I have stressed on many occasions that shopping centers are "business selection industries" and must operate their own business districts in accordance with local conditions.
Herstory: How will the impact of the 2020 outbreak on people's daily consumption, department stores and shopping centers affect and spread to other industries in China?
Su Xiaoqing: The impact of this epidemic is catastrophic. It is fundamentally different from the SARS in 2003. From the perspective of consumption, the current impact is the flow of consumers; in the medium and long term, people's expectations of future income are not good, and consumption will become rational and pragmatic. Of course, there will be a consumption climax after the ban and opening-up, but this climax will not last for a long time. From the perspective of domestic economy, export obstruction and consumption inhibition will affect industrial production and national economic growth.
Herstory: When the new coronavirus outbreak in 2020, what are the opportunities for retail and department stores?
Su Xiaoqing: Every major change in business environment is not only a "danger" but also a "opportunity" for any industry. For the shopping center, we should think more about the nature of the industry and return to the nature of the shopping center business circle.
Recognize that the core content of shopping center development and operation is to apply collaborative mechanism and establish a unique consumer cognitive system (shopping center brand image). The so-called "coordination mechanism", from the perspective of external environment, is the relationship between urban development and shopping centers; the matching relationship between consumption vision and consumption capacity; the competition and cooperation relationship between different competitors in the business circle, etc. From the perspective of site capacity, the relationship between functional business configuration, the relationship between the number, area, type and style of main stores and other tenants, the relationship between competition, parasitism and reciprocity of similar tenants, and more importantly, the relationship between shopping center operation direction and tenant operation ecology. At the same time, as a higher organizational model of entity flow, shopping centers should learn from platform e-commerce, and shift from enterprise thinking to industrial thinking.
Herstory: What challenges and opportunities do you think the commercial real estate industry will face through this epidemic?
Su Xiaoqing: The biggest challenge for the commercial real estate industry will be to test the cash flow of development enterprises, and there may be multiple inter enterprise restructuring in this year. Recently, according to the 2020 China commercial real estate investment intention survey report released by DTL, although China is currently affected by the epidemic, most investors have confidence in the market and are optimistic about the long-term development of the mainland commercial real estate market. In my opinion, the development opportunities of Chinese commercial real estate development enterprises after the epidemic will be in the mature location of the first and second tier cities, and the population density radiating from the business district will be the key to the success of the project. For the location with temporary poor population density, it is suggested to plan uniformly and develop by stages, so as to ensure the efficient operation of cash flow of development enterprises.